Jacksonville Jaguars Season Preview: 2024 NFL Odds and Picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars looked poised to make a run toward the AFC elite through the first three months of 2023 before December decimated an 8-3 record straight up and against the spread through the first 11 games.

The Jags can use their 1-5 slump at the end of 2023 as motivation for next year or let that late-season collapse set the tone for 2024.

Jacksonville doesn’t have the same expectations as last year, as it’s projected to battle for second place in the AFC South with a total of 8.5 wins and allowing points in just nine games. The schedule is also much tighter than last season, with several contenders spread out and divisional rivals like Houston and Indianapolis on the rise.

Can Doug Pederson turn lemons into lemonade or are Jaguars backers in for another down season? Here are my favorite NFL picks for the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Market
Winning the Super Bowl	+5,000
Win conference	+2,500
Win division	+275
Reach the playoffs	+130
More than 8.5 wins	-110
Less than 8.5 wins	-110

The best bet for futures:No playoffs (-155)

A quick tally of the schedule measured against preview lines and win totals shows the Jacksonville Jaguars set to top out at nine wins in 2024. That might land them in second place in the AFC South, but it puts them behind other fringe AFC teams like Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, the NY Jets and Chargers in terms of conference pecking order.

The Jaguars’ schedule is one of the toughest in the league, and their commitment to play in the U.K. makes that day even more daunting. Jacksonville could pick up where it left off, which isn’t good considering there are only two home games in the first seven weeks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars at a glance: A risky business

Jacksonville is getting desperate, and that will show how aggressive this team is on both sides of the ball in 2024. The offense needs Trevor Lawrence to make big plays, taking advantage of his receivers’ speed down the field. The defense, under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, is trying to turn up the pressure and create more game-changing plays. These philosophies are high risk, high reward.

What will make you win bets?: Skill positions

Lawrence’s efforts were tempered by injuries in 2023, which led to a number of turnovers during the team’s stumble to the finish line. When healthy, he remains a fantastic passer and has a playbook that relies on his big arm with the addition of home-run hitters such as wide receivers Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

Running back Travis Etienne’s versatility will keep defenses guessing, and consistency on the offensive line will help with run blocking. Etienne, wide receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram will all be called upon to improve Jacksonville’s red zone performance after leaving too many points on the table in 2023.

Which bets will they lose?: Defense

Jacksonville had a major overhaul on the stoppage unit, with the addition of new coordinator Ryan Nielsen. He’s going to mix up different fronts and increase the intensity with more pass rush coverage and an increase in pass rush. It all sounds good on paper, but there will be a learning curve, especially with some roster replacements.

The schedule doesn’t look too conducive to alleviating those headaches, with plenty of high-scoring attacks early on. Nielsen’s defense faces Miami, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Detroit before the Week 12 bye week. JAX could be susceptible to big plays if the defense is sloppy in its attempt to pressure.

Jacksonville Jaguars schedule and betting tips: pack your bags

For a second, let’s forget about the opponents listed on the Jags’ slate of games at the start of the season. The schedule is already working against this team, which will play just two home games in the first seven weeks of 2024. Three of the first five will be on the road before the annual trip across the pond to play in London in Weeks 6 and 7.

OK, now let’s look at who Jacksonville is up against. Outside of competitive AFC South games with Houston and Indianapolis, the Jaguars’ schedule is packed with playoff contenders. And many of those toughest games are played on the road (at Miami, at Buffalo, at Philadelphia, at Detroit).

I’m smelling hints of Overs with this team, considering the competition and volatile approach the Jags are taking on both offense and defense. If the stoppage unit gets burned for big plays, then Lawrence and the offense have to give it their all. Five of the 17 forecast totals sit above 47 points, with four of those higher figures coming in the first six games.

Cash Bet: Week 4 at Houston (+3.5, 47.5)

We’ll know where the Jaguars stand in the AFC when this AFC South showdown is over.

Not only does this trip to Houston have Jacksonville on the road in back-to-back games and three times in the first four weeks, but it also comes on a short break after playing at Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 3.

For better or worse, the Texans have dominated the Jags. Jacksonville is 4-16 SU and 8-12 ATS against Houston since 2014.

Laying down the law

Market
To win the MVP	+3.000
To earn OPOY	+7,500
Lead the NFL in TD passes	+3.000
Lead the NFL in passing yards	+2,500
Lead the NFL in INT	+1,200

Market
Over 22.5 TD passes	+115
Under 22.5 TD passes	-135
25+ TD passes	+180
30+ TD passes	+800

Market
Over 3,800.5 passing yards	+105
Less than 3,800.5 passing yards	-125
Over 4000 passing yards	+160
4,500+ passing yards	+1.300

Best accessory: Over 22.5 touchdown passes (+115)

Red zone issues were a big problem for the Jaguars during that late-season failure, and of Trevor Lawrence’s 21 touchdown passes, only 12 came inside the 20-yard line. Avoiding those wasted opportunities is a primary goal heading into 2024.

Injury issues are partly to blame for Lawrence’s downfall, so as long as he’s healthy there’s a good chance the Jags’ $275 million man could threaten that 22.5 TD total. He’ll have to stretch the field more, which plays to his strengths, and he could find himself in a number of penalty-kill duels against elite offensive opponents.

Player projections for T-Law’s touchdown total range from a modest 23 to 24 touchdowns. I feel the ceiling could be higher if Lawrence avoids those drive-ruining steals and addresses his red zone slump.

Jacksonville Jaguars Trend: London Below Average

For the second season running, the Jaguars will play two games in London. Owner Shahid Khan is dedicated to developing the game internationally and making his team the face of football in the UK.

Jacksonville is used to making the trip, but that hasn’t given it any advantage in terms of wins or ATS success, going 3-3 SU and ATS in UK games since 2018. However, there is a trend in the totals that emerges with the Jags on foreign soil.

The team has played under in its last six games in London dating back to 2018, including an 0-2 Over/Under record in 2023. Those games have produced a combined average of 37.8 points against an average O/U total of 45 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars London Games

• Week 6 vs. Chicago (47.5)
• Week 7 vs. New England (42.5)

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