The Rox of 2024 are not the Rox of 2016, and that’s a problem – Boulder Daily Camera

Some people at 20th and Blake, including manager Bud Black, general manager Bill Schmidt and veteran pitcher Kyle Freeland, believe the Rockies are ready to turn things around. For them, becoming a .500 team — perhaps even a playoff contender — as soon as next season is no pipe dream.

I consider myself a skeptic.

Not only are the Rockies likely headed for their second straight 100-loss season, but the 2024 Rockies are not the 2016 Rockies, and that’s a problem.

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The 2016 season has been forgotten, and understandably so. Under Walt Weiss, Colorado finished with a 75-87 record, third in the NL West, 16 games behind the Dodgers.

There were, however, hints of what was to come in 2017-18 when the Rockies, under Black, made the postseason in consecutive seasons for the only time in their history.

“I have no doubt we were turning a corner,” Weiss told me before the Braves beat the Marlins on Thursday. Weiss has been Atlanta’s bench coach since 2018.

Weiss left the Rockies after the 2016 season when he clashed with former general manager Jeff Bridich, who wanted Weiss gone as soon as possible.

Still, Weiss knew he was leaving a team that was on the cusp of becoming a contender.

“We had all these young pitchers on the cusp of becoming big leaguers,” Weiss said. “We already had a solid lineup, great position players. A great locker room. There was a new rotation waiting to be added in 2017, and the young pitchers were very talented.

“With that little run the Rockies had in 2017 and 2018, I think they had the best overall pitching they’ve ever had.”

The 2017 team saw the emergence of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Jon Gray (in his second full season). In addition, Bridich brought in Greg Holland as closer, and he delivered 41 saves in 57 1/3 innings.

In 2016, Colorado’s lineup was already stacked. Nolan Arenado hit .294 with 41 homers. DJ LeMahieu won the NL batting title with a .348 average and 11 homers. Charlie Blackmon hit .324 with 29 homers. Carlos Gonzalez hit .298 with 25 homers.

As a rookie shortstop, Trevor Story hit 27 homers in just 97 games before tearing a ligament in his left thumb. The Rockies were 52-52 on July 30 when Story was injured during a game at Citi Field against the Mets.

The Rockies went 23-35 the rest of the way as the rotation sputtered and the bullpen imploded.

But the seeds of success were already planted.

Schmidt believes something similar is happening now. In fact, he projected a brighter future during the 2022 winter meetings.

“We’re not where we should be, but I use the bamboo theory,” Schmidt said. “There’s a lot of stuff growing underneath that people don’t see, and it’s going to come out here. When that happens, everything will be fine.”

Schmidt’s belief that the Rockies are “going to blow up” — as soon as next season — certainly influenced his lackadaisical attitude at the trade deadline. Schmidt wasn’t ready to trade key players, especially when he didn’t receive any worthwhile offers.

But barring offseason extensions, right-handed starters German Marquez and Cal Quantrill, left-handed starter Austin Gomber and starting second baseman Brendan Rodgers will all be in the final year of their contracts entering 2025.

That’s why next season is so critical and why Schmidt needs to make some aggressive and smart moves, starting this offseason.

The future rotation has potential and a chance to remind us of the stellar 2017-18 team. Freeland is getting back into shape. Marquez will presumably come back strong from Tommy John surgery. Same goes for Senzatela.

Quantrill (if he’s not traded in the offseason) and Gomber (ditto) are capable of pitching solid innings, and right-hander Ryan Feltner, while a developmental project, has what it takes to be a force. Lefty Carson Palmquist and right-handers Chase Dollander and Gabriel Hughes are all promising prospects.

But I’m not optimistic about the bullpen, which entered the weekend with a 5.56 ERA, worst in the majors. Right-hander Victor Vodnik has shown promise as a closer, but if Schmidt wants to turn things around next season, he must find a veteran late-inning reliever and fill other holes.

But that’s not even the Rockies’ biggest flaw: The main reason I can’t compare the 2024 team to the 2016 team is their mediocre lineup.

Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and center fielder Brenton Doyle are both All-Stars and franchise cornerstones. Third baseman Ryan McMahon remains on the cusp of becoming a difference-maker, but he’s incredibly streaky and has never come close to matching Arenado at his best.

Skillful first baseman Michael Toglia, who hit his 19th homer Thursday night in Anaheim, is becoming a force, though he still strikes out too much.

But first baseman/designated hitter Kris Bryant shows no signs of being the “aircraft carrier” the Rockies projected him to be. After this season, he is still under contract for four more years at $27 million a year. That’s a lot of money for a player who will never be anywhere near what he once was with Chicago.

Blackmon, 38, doesn’t figure into Colorado’s future plans, and I doubt Rodgers will ever be the impact player the Rockies hoped he would be.

Yes, there are some intriguing prospects on the horizon — outfielders Jordan Beck, Zac Veen and Yanquiel Fernandez, infielder Amadel Amador and catcher Drew Romo — but they have a long way to go before they become Arenado, Blackmon, LeMahieu, Story and CarGo.

In 2016, the Rockies posted a losing record for the sixth consecutive season, the longest such streak in franchise history. The 2024 Rockies will match that mark.

Will the Rockies be better in 2025? Yes, but I don’t see playoffs on the horizon. I see a seventh straight losing season and the Rockies asking their fans for more patience.

Rocky Mountains: 2016 vs. 2024

The Rockies turned things around after the 2016 season and made the playoffs in 2017-18. The club hopes to see similar results after this season. Here’s a comparison of the 2016 and 2024 seasons:

(Can’t see the chart on mobile? Click here)

* On track for a 162-game season | Note: 2024 stats through Thursday’s game

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Originally published: August 3, 2024 at 9:59 PM