AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan’s statewide primary

NEWAYGO, Mich.– While Michigan remains one of the crown jewels of the fall presidential campaign, the focus on Tuesday is on state primaries that could play a major role in deciding control of the closely divided U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as the state legislature.

Headlining the field is the race to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced in January that she would not seek a fifth term. Running in the Democratic primary are three-term incumbent Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Detroit actor and small-business owner Hill Harper.

Since his first election in 2018, Slotkin has kept his key Lansing district in Democratic hands by a narrow margin. He won his current 7th Congressional District with just under 52% of the vote in 2022, his highest vote share in his three campaigns. He won a similar district in 2018 and 2020 with less than 51% of the vote.

If he wins the primary as expected, he will face another tough contest against the likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is seeking to end his party’s 24-year drought in U.S. Senate races in Michigan. The former House Intelligence Committee chairman and CNN anchor launched his campaign in September and has since narrowed the Republican primary field as the state’s party establishment has coalesced behind him. Rogers’ remaining primary opponents include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, best known for voting to impeach President Donald Trump and for leaving the Republican Party to become an independent and then a libertarian. Also running is Sherry O’Donnell, a physician and former congressional candidate.

Slotkin enjoys a considerable financial advantage in the race. He has raised and accumulated more campaign funds than all other Democratic and Republican candidates combined.

Candidates to replace Slotkin in the 7th Congressional District include Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators. Neither has competition for their parties’ nominations. Voters in the 7th District narrowly supported Republican Trump in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

Other Michigan congressional seats that could decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November are in Districts 3, 8 and 10, all of which had contested primaries on Tuesday.

In Grand Rapids’ 3rd District in western Michigan, Republicans Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are vying for the nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten, who is the front-runner in her primary. Democrat Hillary Clinton barely edged out Trump among 3rd District voters in 2016, while Biden won more easily in 2020.

In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, three Democrats and three Republicans are running to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who is not seeking a seventh term.

In the 10th District, which includes most of Macomb and parts of Oakland counties in Detroit’s northern suburbs, Democrat Carl Marlinga is hoping for a rematch against first-term Republican Rep. John James but must first defeat three other candidates for his party’s nomination. James edged out Marlinga in the 2022 election, 48.8% to 48.3%. Voters in the 10th District slightly preferred Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Macomb is home to a key voter class often referred to as Reagan Democrats.

Voters across the state will also choose their candidates in 67 contested primaries for the state House of Representatives. Democrats won narrow majorities in both chambers of the state legislature in the 2022 midterm elections. All 110 state House seats are up for grabs in November. State Senate seats will not be up for election until 2026.

Here’s what awaits you on Tuesday:

Michigan’s statewide primary will be held on Tuesday. The last polls close at 9 p.m. ET, though most of the state closes at 8 p.m. ET. All polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

The Associated Press will provide voting results and declare winners in the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and state Houses.

Michigan has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party’s primary.

Key vote-rich counties in Michigan state elections are Wayne (home of Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (home of Grand Rapids), Genesee (home of Flint), and Washtenaw (home of Ann Arbor).

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Rogers is the front-runner, but he could do well in the areas he represented in Congress. Broadly, that included the Republican parts of Oakland County as well as the Republican areas roughly located between Detroit, Lansing and Flint. He lives in southwest Michigan.

Detroit businessman Sandy Pensler dropped out of the race in July but will remain on the ballot. He received 45% of the vote in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary against James. Pensler won most of northern Michigan and the eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. His exit from the race should benefit Rogers, whom he endorsed.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it determines that no scenario exists that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a winner has not been declared, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the two leading candidates is 2,000 votes or less. Candidates can request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the cost if the recount changes the outcome. State party chairs can request recounts for state legislative races if the margin is less than 500 votes in state Senate races and less than 200 votes in state House races. The AP can declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. A new recount law signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.

As of July 9, there were about 8.3 million registered voters in Michigan.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 12% of registered voters for the Democratic primary and 13% for the Republican primary. About 55% of voters in the 2022 midterm primaries and about 35% of voters in the 2024 presidential primary cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Thursday, a total of 870,2307 votes had been cast ahead of primary day.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after the first polls closed. Election night counting ended at 4:05 a.m. ET, with about 96% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, it will be 91 days until the November general election.

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