Hurricane warnings issued for parts of Texas coast as Beryl approaches

Houston – Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast as Tropical Storm Beryl approaches on Saturday.

Beryl is forecast to make landfall in Texas sometime Monday.

We have been monitoring forecast changes over the past few days to see what the impacts will be for the Houston area.

Here are the latest updates.

Current situation

As of 4 p.m. Saturday, Beryl remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

It is located about 385 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and moving northwest at 13 mph. The minimum pressure has dropped to 997 mb.

Beryl has attempted to become better organized over the past several hours, but is currently battling some wind shear and dry air trying to force its way into the circulation. However, conditions are forecast to become more favorable tonight and early tomorrow and Beryl is forecast to strengthen again into a hurricane before making landfall sometime on Monday.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent. They are typically issued within 36 hours before the area is forecast to be affected by tropical storm or hurricane conditions.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect from Sargent to High Island.

The models have started to have more consensus on Beryl’s ultimate fate, but I wouldn’t expect too much, as things have changed a lot in the last few days. However, we are getting closer to landfall and there is a limit to what these storms can do in the time left before landfall.

Models indicate that Beryl will make landfall somewhere between Rockport and Matagorda Bay early Monday. There is some question about its strength when it makes landfall and most models are predicting a Category 1 storm with winds near 90 mph. However, I would prepare for Beryl to possibly be as strong as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 3 at landfall as warmer water temperatures could mean this storm could intensify quickly.

Beryl is a fairly compact storm, so if it were to lurch east or west by 20-30 miles, it could make a big difference as to who will see the strongest winds.

In the Houston area, expect tropical storm-force winds Monday morning, with wind speeds between 39 and 73 miles per hour.

The Houston area will also see plenty of rain from Beryl. The good news is that by all indications, Beryl will be moving at a decent pace and it doesn’t look like we’ll have to deal with the storm stalling. So while we will see rain and possibly a lot of it, it doesn’t look like Beryl will be stopping.

Due to the expected heavy rainfall from Beryl, a flood watch has been issued from the Houston area westward. The watch expires Tuesday at 7 a.m.

For the Texas coast, here is the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center on expected storm surge:

Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4-6 feet

Matagorda Bay…4-6 feet

Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 feet

Padre Island N Entrance NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 feet

Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 feet

Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to North Entrance of Padre Island NS, TX…2-4 feet

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 feet

Galveston Bay…2-4 feet

Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 feet

As with any landfalling tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be a concern beginning Sunday as the outer bands of Beryl begin to approach the Texas coast. Watch closely to see how great the tornado threat will be.

Things to see

• According to the latest data, Beryl appears to be making landfall between Rockport and Matagorda Bay. Areas farther north, such as Freeport and Galveston, should be on the lookout for trends that begin to move it northward again.

• Beryl is forecast to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Its intensity will need to be closely monitored as there is a possibility that Beryl will be stronger at landfall.

• Beryl is a compact storm and any variation in its track could have a significant impact on who will receive the brunt of the system’s winds.